London is currently seeing just 24 new cases of coronavirus a day and could be “virus-free” within a fortnight, new research suggests.
Modelling by Public Health England and Cambridge University indicates that the capital’s “R” reproduction rate has fallen to 0.4, down from around 2.8 before the lockdown.
That means that for every ten people who catch the virus, they pass it on to just four others between them.
But leading experts today questioned the accuracy of the data, warning it might not reflect the true picture.
At the peak of the crisis, the number of people being infected in the capital each day stood at 213,000.
London’s current ‘R’ rate: 0.4
London’s pre-lockdown ‘R’ rate: 2.8
That figure fell to around 10,000 after the lockdown was imposed.
The fall means that the number of new cases being recorded in London is now halving every 3.5 days, the Telegraph reports.
But rates around the country vary greatly meaning there is still considerable risk of infection for Brits.
Number of new COVID-19 cases in London
‘halving every 3.5 days’
The capital was the early epicentre of the UK’s outbreak, but is now doing better than the country as a whole, which currently has an “R” value of 0.75.
The North East and Yorkshire, taken together, have the highest rate of any region, with 0.8, and are seeing around 4,320 infections a day.
The North West is second highest, seeing 2,380 infections a day, while all other regions are seeing fewer than 1,500.
Coronavirus fatalities in the UK stand at 33,614 after 428 more deaths were recorded yesterday.
A total of 233,151 people have now tested positive for Covid-19 across Britain.